Revised figures confirm that GDP grew by 0.8% in the third quarter, with additional detail suggesting a further healthy gain in the current quarter.

Industrial production and services output both rose by 0.6% last quarter, with the increase in overall GDP boosted to 0.8% by a 4.0% rise in construction.

A monthly GDP estimate based on industry and services data stood 0.5% above its third-quarter average in September, implying significant positive carry-over into the current quarter – see chart. With further growth likely in these sectors, GDP should rise by at least 0.4% this quarter even if construction reverses its third-quarter increase.

The expenditure breakdown shows a surprise 0.4 percentage point contribution to GDP growth from net exports – this had not been suggested by monthly trade figures. It would be premature to infer that the economy is finally "rebalancing" in response to the lower exchange rate, since the improvement follows four successive quarters of deterioration.

Household spending rose by only 0.3%, reflecting an inflation squeeze on real employee compensation, while business investment fell by 0.2%. The latter, however, is at odds with encouraging survey evidence on capital spending and early estimates have been consistently revised higher in recent quarters.

Stockbuilding was modest, at 0.1% of GDP. Inventory levels remain much lower than before the recession, suggesting scope for a further rebuild that will contribute to future growth.

The price deflator for household spending – the broadest measure of consumer inflation – rose by 4.9% in the year to the third quarter, above both CPI inflation of 3.1% and a 4.7% gain in the RPI excluding mortgage interest payments. (The CPI understates inflation because it excludes some housing costs and uses geometric averaging to combine prices of individual items.)

Nominal or current-price GDP rose by 5.9% in the year to the third quarter. Growth needs to be constrained to about 4.5% per annum over the medium term to be consistent with the inflation target.