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Strong global momentum at end-2009

Posted on Monday, January 11, 2010 at 01:31PM by Registered CommenterSimon Ward | CommentsPost a Comment

The OECD's leading indices are designed to predict industrial production and typically lead by three months or so. November figures released on Friday show further large gains across major developed and emerging economies. A combined G7 plus "E7" indicator suggests that output will continue to recover rapidly in early 2010 – see first chart.

Further evidence of resurgent industrial activity is provided by recent Asian trade data. The second chart shows combined dollar exports and imports of China, Korea and Taiwan, adjusted for seasonal variation. Both surged in December, with imports surpassing their July 2008 peak. 


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