UK GDP on track for 0.25%+ Q3 rise
The OECD's forecast that UK GDP will contract by a further 0.25% in the third quarter looks even more suspect following today's industrial output release for July, showing a 0.6% rise from June to a level 0.7% above the second-quarter average.
Services output for July will be published on 30 September but the June number was already slightly above the second-quarter average. Even assuming no rise in July (at odds with more upbeat recent business surveys), the monthly GDP estimate described in previous posts will be 0.2% above the second-quarter level – see chart.
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