The MPC-ometer predicts that Bank rate will be held at 0.5% at tomorrow’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting. A split decision is indicated, however, with one or more members – probably including arch-dove David Blanchflower – voting to lower the target for official rates to between zero and 0.25%, the currently-prevailing US level.

The MPC-ometer forecasts the outcome of each month’s MPC meeting based on the latest economic and financial indicators. The no-change prediction reflects slightly less grim news over the last month: business surveys indicate a slower decline in new orders, consumers are a bit less pessimistic, share prices have rallied and money market conditions have eased.

As well as cutting rates to 0.5%, the MPC last month announced plans to boost the money supply by buying £75 billion of gilts and other securities by early June. It is much too early to judge the success of this policy but the Bank of England had purchased £21 billion by last week, suggesting it is on course to reach the target.

The broad money supply M4, adjusted for distortions due to the financial crisis, needs to grow by 6-7% a year to support economic expansion but rose by just 3.8% during 2008, contributing to the slide into recession. The MPC should calibrate asset purchases to boost annual growth in adjusted M4 to 10% to compensate for last year’s shortfall and lay the foundations for an economic recovery.

The initial plans look sensible – £75 billion is the equivalent of 4.5% of the adjusted money supply – but the MPC will need to fine-tune its operations in the light of incoming monetary data. The Bank of England is making it more difficult for outside observers to make a judgement on this issue by refusing to publish its monthly estimates of the adjusted M4 money supply.

The Bank gave the following response to a freedom-of-information request for access to the data:

Thank you for your email dated 5 March in which you request access under the Freedom of Information Act 2000 ('FoI Act') to:

'...the adjusted M4 and M4L data prepared monthly within the Bank (ie the monthly versions of the series that have been published quarterly in chart form - with underlying data available in a spreadsheet - in recent Inflation Reports)'

Monthly data used to calculate these adjusted measures is provided confidentially to the Bank. Moreover, that information is based on a restricted sample and is not considered sufficiently robust for disclosure. Equally, publication could potentially compromise confidential sources.

But in any case, the data is held by the Bank for the purposes of its monetary policy functions and is not, therefore, subject to the requirements of the FoI Act. Parts I to V of the FoI Act (including the general right of access under section 1) do not apply to information which the Bank holds for the purposes of its functions with respect to monetary policy (see section 7(1) and the Bank of England entry in Schedule 1, Part VI FoI Act).