The official estimate of a 0.4% GDP decline in the third quarter implies a further widening of the "output gap" – the difference between actual and "potential" GDP. Business surveys, however, suggest that capacity utilisation has stabilised or increased recently.

For example, the Bank of England's agents' survey scores on capacity constraints in services and manufacturing have risen since the spring. The numbers remain very low by historical standards but any increase should, in theory, reflect higher output and – strictly speaking – above-trend expansion.

The chart shows quarterly changes in GDP and a weighted average of the agents' scores. The capacity indicator gave timely warning of the onset of the recession and suggests that output in the sectors covered should have increased last quarter and possibly even in the spring quarter also.

The MPC's judgement about how much weight to give to stronger survey evidence may be influenced by tomorrow's US third-quarter GDP numbers. Purchasing managers' survey results have been similar in the US and UK recently; if US GDP posts a solid increase, as markets expect, this would cast further doubt on the reliability of the initial UK estimate.

October PMI results released next week, and the Bank's latest agents' scores, will also be important. A significant set-back would lend credence to the GDP number; the PMI surveys, however, correlate with equity analysts' earnings revisions, which strengthened further this month.