US likely to have grown faster than other G7 economies in year to Q2
Simon Ward
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Contrary to consensus expectations, the US has held up better than other major economies since the credit crisis erupted last summer.
The first estimate of US second-quarter GDP is released on Thursday. According to Reuters, economists expect quarterly growth of 2.0% annualised (I think a stronger number is likely). If realised, this would imply a year-on-year increase of 2.1%.
Available evidence suggests the Eurozone and Japanese economies contracted in the second quarter, partly as pay-back for exaggerated strength in the first three months. Assume optimistically that GDP is unchanged on the quarter in both cases. This would imply year-on-year growth of 1.7% and 2.0% respectively.
UK second-quarter numbers released on Friday showed year-on-year GDP growth of just 1.6%.
Stopped-clock pessimists now expect a US recession to start during the second half. They will be right one day but I expect the economy to stay afloat, based on loose policies and low inventories – likely to have fallen further in the second quarter. Downside risks look much greater in Europe.
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