Three cheers for the MPC!
Simon Ward
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Last August Jim Cramer of CNBC ranted that the Fed had "no idea" how bad markets and the economy were looking. The central bank duly obliged with a 50 bp cut in its discount rate. Sir Stuart Rose of M&S tried a similar trick yesterday when commenting on his company’s woeful Christmas trading results. Thankfully, the MPC held firm.
The economy has slowed significantly in recent months but it is not clear that growth is weaker than the MPC desired when they tightened policy last year. Household inflation expectations and business price-raising plans remain at or above levels that troubled Committee members then. Meanwhile, financial conditions have eased significantly over the last month as interbank lending rates have tumbled and sterling has weakened sharply.
A 25 bp cut remains likely in February but the MPC is right to be cautious given near-term inflation risks.
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