UK vacancies signalling economic resilience
Simon Ward
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The view here that the UK will avoid a “double dip” is supported by recent strength in online job vacancies – a good coincident indicator.
The Monster employment index is a monthly tally of vacancies posted on job boards and career websites. The index tends to lead official vacancies numbers and is available earlier – a January figure was released on Friday. A further advantage is that the Monster measure is ignored by the consensus.
The first chart shows a monthly estimate of GDP derived from output data on services, industry and construction (99% of the economy) together with a seasonally-adjusted version of the Monster index. The Monster survey correctly signalled a collapse in output between February 2008 and March 2009 and a subsequent recovery to a high in early 2011.
The Monster index weakened during the middle of last year but reached a low in October – monthly GDP troughed in the same month, based on current output data. It has since recovered strongly, matching its January 2011 high last month, suggesting that GDP has opened 2012 above its fourth-quarter level.
The index also implies a reversal of the recent fall in employee numbers – second chart.
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