UK recession, ex oil, less severe than 1979-81
Simon Ward
Post a Comment
GDP fell by 6.2% between the first quarter of 2008 and the third quarter of 2009 before recovering in the fourth quarter. The drop exceeds the peak-to-trough decline of 6.0% during the 1979-81 recession.
The recent GDP reduction, however, was magnified by a large fall in oil and gas production, reflecting reserves depletion. Oil output rose during the 1979-81 recession, when the North Sea was coming on stream.
With North Sea production driven by supply capacity rather than domestic or global demand, it may be more appropriate to focus on non-oil output when comparing economic weakness across cycles.
On this basis, the recent recession was less severe than 1979-81: the peak-to-trough fall in non-oil "gross value added" is currently estimated at 5.8% versus 6.4% – see chart.
View Printer Friendly Version
Email Article to Friend
Reader Comments