The stock of vacancies – a leading indicator of the number of employees – peaked in January (three-month moving average basis), with another hefty fall in June. Employee numbers appear to have peaked in February (also three-month moving average) – see first chart. A stable unemployment rate of 3.8% reflects slower labour force expansion and a rise in “self-employment”, which have – so far – balanced the stall in employees.
Vacancies are down by 3.9% from the January peak but the fall has been cushioned by a rise in public sector openings: the decline outside public administration, education and health was 6.8% – second chart.
Manufacturing vacancies have plunged 12.5% since January. Other large declines include real estate and “other service activities” (-20%), information and communication (-13%), arts, entertainment and recreation (-9%), financial and insurance activities (-8%) and construction (-7%).
By size of business, the decline has been concentrated among firms with fewer than 50 employees – vacancies for this group are down by 9.6% versus 1.7% for larger employers.