With a few seats still to declare, the Conservative vote share is slightly higher than the 36.1% achieved at the 2010 election and about 6 percentage points (pp) ahead of Labour. This compares with a 2 pp margin predicted by the economic model described in a previous post, based on current values of the input variables.

The difference between the actual 6 pp lead and the 2 pp prediction probably reflects two factors. First, the SNP increased its vote share by 3 pp, mostly at the expense of Labour. Secondly, voters appear to have given the Tories some credit for expected further economic improvements: the model had indicated that their lead would be 6 pp if the economic conditions forecast by the Bank of England for the fourth quarter of 2015 were in place now.