Gloomsters claim that the double dip occurred in the fourth quarter of 2011 and first quarter of 2012. Last month, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimated that GDP declined by 0.3% and 0.1% respectively in the two quarters*. Excluding North Sea oil and gas production, however, the changes were -0.2% and zero respectively. This implied no double dip in the onshore economy, in the conventionally-understood sense of consecutive quarterly contractions – see previous post.

The figures have now been revised again to show a GDP fall of only 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2011 versus 0.3% previously. The decline excluding the North Sea is now 0.1% rather than 0.2%.

The total fall in GDP during the two quarters of the claimed double dip, therefore, is now just 0.2% compared with an original estimate of 0.5% in April 2012.

Revisions, of course, will continue for many years and are likely, on balance, to be upwards as the statisticians gain better understanding of the industries and firms that are leading the upswing – this has been the pattern in prior economic recoveries.

The double dip, in other words, is probably a myth that the ONS will consign to the dustbin of history at some future point when no one is any longer interested in whether one occurred.

Today’s update contained no change to the earlier-reported 0.3% GDP decline in the fourth quarter of 2012, which is entirely attributable to the unwind of the Olympics boost. The level of GDP last quarter, however, was revised up by 0.1%, reflecting stronger performance in earlier quarters.

*GDP also fell in the second quarter but even gloomsters admit that this was due to the additional Diamond Jubilee bank holiday so should be ignored.