The MPC vote was an unchanged 6-3 in March, in line with the forecast of the MPC-ometer model followed here – see previous post. The Committee's “reaction function” may be in the process of shifting but its current behaviour remains consistent with its historical response to economic and financial news.

With half of the inputs for the April forecast available, the model suggests that the current split will persist – the final reading will depend importantly on March consumer and purchasing managers’ surveys*, as well as developments in the Cyprus crisis, to the extent that these affect UK financial markets.

A shift in the vote is more likely to occur in May – policy changes have historically been bunched in Inflation Report months while the preliminary first-quarter GDP estimate released on 25 April should carry strong weight. The view here remains that the economy is expanding in early 2013, a contention supported by encouraging January services turnover data – see yesterday’s post. (This number, of course, has been universally ignored by media gloomsters, in contrast to blanket coverage of the January fall in industrial output reported last week, despite the latter’s smaller significance for the GDP result.)

*Released on 27 March and in the first week of April respectively.