Upward revisions to construction output released today are likely to prompt a further round of upgrades to 2013 GDP growth estimates, consistent with the long-standing view here that the economy will eventually be shown to have expanded by about 2% this year.

Construction output is now estimated to have risen by 4.8% between the fourth quarter of 2012 and the third quarter of 2013, a substantial change from 2.2% a month ago. With construction accounting for 6.3% of GDP, this implies that the latter grew by 2.00% rather than 1.84% between the two quarters, assuming no revisions to output in other sectors. Revised GDP figures are released next week.

Construction, moreover, is on course to make another solid contribution to fourth-quarter GDP expansion. The October level of output was 2.0% above the third-quarter average and, if sustained, implies that the sector will add 0.13 percentage points to the change in GDP this quarter.

The Office for Budget Responsibility last week projected a 1.4% rise in GDP in 2013 based on assumed 0.7% growth in the fourth quarter. Today’s construction revision suggests a full-year number of 1.5%, maintaining the fourth quarter assumption. The latter, however, seems low relative to other evidence – 0.9% growth would generate a full-year GDP increase of 1.6%.

The revisions process remains at an early stage and the expectation here is that the numbers for the dominant services sector will be raised over coming months, bringing 2013 GDP growth up towards 2.0%.