Weak US retail sales for May are further evidence of an economic slowdown predicted by real narrow money and confirmed by recent softness in leading indicators – see yesterday’s post.
May sales excluding food and gasoline were lower than three months earlier, in February. The three-month change tends to lead the widely-watched ISM manufacturing new orders index – see first chart.
A fall in the ISM index is also suggested by a recent pick-up in earnings downgrades by equity analysts – second chart.
