It is anyone’s guess what GDP number official statisticians will manufacture next week but resilient online job demand suggests that the economy flatlined rather than contracted in the fourth quarter.

The chart shows a monthly GDP estimate derived from output data covering services, industry and construction together with a seasonally-adjusted version of the Monster employment index – a tally of online vacancies posted on career websites and job boards (not just Monster’s). Both GDP and the index dipped in October but the latter rallied in November / December, resulting in minimal change for the quarter. This contrasts with a plunge in spring 2008 as the economy entered a recession.