UK economic news remains reassuring and at odds with the unremitting gloom purveyed by the media and propaganda organisations such as the British Retail Consortium (BRC).
The Monster index of online job vacancies rose by an annual 14% in April, up from 9% in March, despite a fall of 8% in public sector openings. A seasonally-adjusted version of the index tracks combined output of the services and industrial sectors (which account for 93% of GDP) and remains on an upward trend, implying that the economy is continuing to recover despite data volatility caused by the weather, holiday effects and unreliable ONS estimates of construction output – see first chart.
Rising employment is also suggested by last week's Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) commercial market survey, showing an increase in demand for space in the first quarter – second chart.
The RICS housing market survey for April, released this morning, reported a rise in both activity and price balances. The net percentage of surveyors expecting higher prices remains heavily negative but – at least when asked by their industry body – estate agents have a surprising tendency towards pessimism: the current reading has been associated with inflation historically – third chart.
Reflecting holiday effects, BRC retail sales soared by an annual 6.9% in April, a figure as meaningless as the 1.9% March slump, which was a cause of much celebration by the gloomsters when reported a month ago – see previous post. The average of the current and year-before annual changes strips out holiday distortions and is a better guide to the underlying trend: April's 3.3% result was in the middle of the recent range, consistent with a subdued but not suicidal consumer – fourth chart.
