The spring slowdown in global industrial momentum predicted by real narrow money and, more recently, the OECD's leading indices should be confirmed by April manufacturing purchasing managers' surveys. The slowdown was beginning before the Great Hanshin earthquake but has been exacerbated by ensuing supply disruption.
The charts show G7 PMI new orders with, respectively, Korean manufacturing expectations and the world earnings revisions ratio (i.e. the net proportion of equity analysts' earnings estimates that have been revised up since the prior month). Korea is a bellwether of the global industrial cycle while analysts' earnings revisions partly reflect information on trading conditions received from company contacts. Both indicators suggest an extension of the March decline in PMI orders.
