UK employment numbers this week were grim but had been foreshadowed by a drop in vacancies – a leading indicator – this spring.
Vacancies, however, have stabilised since the summer, suggesting that the labour market is stagnant rather than entering a new decline.
The earlier fall reflected public sector weakness as an increase in late 2010 and early 2011, partly related to temporary hires in connection with the recent census, unwound. Both private and public sector vacancies have been static recently.