Posts earlier in the year argued that global economic momentum would fade in the second half in lagged response to narrow money supply weakness in late 2009 and early 2010. A slowdown would also be consistent with the typical cyclical pattern, involving strong stocks-led growth in the first year of a recovery followed by a "resting phase" before a sustained upswing driven by final demand.
The US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing new orders index is a useful summary measure of global industrial momentum. A chart presented in a post in June suggested that this index, then at a recovery peak of 66, would fall back to the break-even 50 level over the summer. An update is provided in the first chart below – ISM new orders dropped to 53 in July and this week's regional manufacturing surveys by the New York and Philadelphia Federal Reserve Banks suggest a further decline in August.
If the index continues to follow the "five-cycle average", it may stabilise at around the 50 level before restrengthening in early 2011. It would need to fall to 45 or below to signal a recession. Sub-45 readings have historically been preceded by a significant contraction in US real narrow money but this has expanded recently – second chart. A further indication that the ISM measure may be approaching a trough is a small rise this month in the Philadephia Fed future orders index (in contrast to the decline its current orders measure) – third chart.
