Another reason for doubting the significance of the slowdown in US private-sector payrolls in May is that business surveys have yet to signal any weakening of labour demand.

The chart shows a survey-based measure of labour demand comprising three components: the net percentage of Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing firms expanding employment, the monthly lay-off tally by outsourcing consultancy firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas and the net percentage of National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) small firms planning to hire. Reflecting increases in the ISM and NFIB components, this composite measure rose further in May to its highest level since January 2007.