Unemployment is still rising rapidly but job vacancies – a coincident rather than lagging indicator – suggest economic stabilisation. Vacancies bottomed in May and have edged higher in June and July. The rate of change over three months is still negative but has recovered to a level historically consistent with marginal GDP expansion – see chart.

The May trough in vacancies, like the peak in February 2008, was signalled in advance by the Market job placements index – see earlier post. The Markit index fell back in July but remains well above the low reached in December 2008.