Analysts are preparing to dissect the carefully-calibrated prose of tomorrow's Inflation Report for clues about the MPC's policy intentions. The effort is probably overdone, since the message of the Report will be summarised by a single number – the mean inflation forecast two years ahead assuming an unchanged level of Bank rate. If this remains below 2%, the implication is that the MPC retains an easing bias even after last week's QE expansion.

Ludicrously, the MPC refuses to publish its numerical forecasts until a week after the Inflation Report but the relevant figure can be gleaned from the charts, give or take a decimal point. It is important to focus on the mean forecast, rather than the central-case or modal projection, since this incorporates the MPC's weighting of upside and downside risks.

The mean two-year-ahead forecast based on unchanged rates reached a record low of 0.4% in February, signalling a strong easing bias. The following month the MPC reduced Bank rate by a further half point to 0.5% while announcing £75 billion of asset purchases, expanding this to £125 billion in May.

Partly reflecting these actions, the forecast was significantly higher in the May Inflation Report, at 1.7%. The shortfall from 2%, however, indicated that the MPC retained a modest easing bias.

It is possible that the MPC's inflation views have changed little since May, with the impact of weaker-than-expected GDP numbers and sterling appreciation counterbalanced by encouraging recovery signals from surveys and rising commodity prices. If so, last week's QE expansion should result in a further rise in the mean two-year-ahead forecast to close to 2%, signalling a neutral policy bias.

The consensus view, however, is that the surprise move reflected increased MPC concern about an inflation undershoot. If this interpretation is correct, the mean forecast based on unchanged rates will show little change from its May level of 1.7%, suggesting a continued easing bias. Of course, any fall in the forecast from 1.7%, despite expanded QE, would be a strong statement of increased MPC pessimism.

The MPC's shorter-term inflation projections will also be in focus tomorrow. Recent CPI numbers have been higher than forecast in May and the MPC's assumption that electricity and gas prices will be cut by a further 15% during the second half looks questionable. Food prices, however, are slowing sharply: July producer price numbers suggest another favourable impact in the CPI report to be released next week – see chart.