The 138,000 jump in claimant-count unemployment in February appears to represent pay-back for surprisingly modest increases in earlier months.
The rise brings the cumulative increase since the low in January 2008 to 596,000. This is larger than at the equivalent stage of the 1970s labour market recession but below the rises in the early 1980s and early 1990s – see first chart.
A similar analysis for job vacancies gives a slightly different message: the decline from the peak in March 2008 is greater than in the early 1990s recession but is trailing the falls in the 1970s and 1980s – second chart.
These earlier episodes indicate that vacancies are unlikely to bottom before October 2009 at the earliest, while unemployment may continue to rise well into 2010.
