The headline balances from January’s CBI distributive trades survey are unremarkable, suggesting a slowdown but not collapse in retail spending. However, some worrying developments are buried in the detail of the report.

Specifically, wholesale traders have reported a sharp rise in stock levels in December and January and have cut back their orders with suppliers accordingly. Few economists bother to look at these series but weakness in wholesale orders usually signals deteriorating manufacturing prospects – see chart below.

I still favour a moderate growth slowdown this year rather than serious economic weakness but this is troubling news. Let’s see if there is any confirmation in the January purchasing managers’ manufacturing survey due on Friday.