UK high-street spending has proved resilient in recent months and retailers remain moderately optimistic about near-term prospects, according to the November CBI distributive trades survey. However, a significant slowdown is now being signalled by our leading indicator – see chart below. The indicator has five components: mortgage approvals, real earnings growth, retailers’ sales assessment, consumer buying intentions and household sector real money growth. Recent weakness mainly reflects drops in mortgage approvals and buying intentions coupled with lacklustre real earnings growth.