Minutes of the November MPC meeting reveal a 7-2 vote for unchanged rates, in line with our MPC-ometer forecast. A minor surprise was that Gieve joined Blanchflower in seeking a cut, while Bean and Lomax – who opposed the last rise in July – voted for stable rates.

The MPC-ometer forecast for December will be available at the end of next week but I think a 25 b.p. cut is likely. Failure to deliver would sit uneasily with the remarkably dovish November Inflation Report, indicating a 50 b.p. decline is necessary to prevent an inflation undershoot. More straightforwardly, three-month LIBOR has risen by 25 b.p. since the last MPC meeting so an official cut is arguably required just to offset market-led tightening.