Les investisseurs consacrent énormément de temps et d’énergie à tenter de prévoir l’avenir, qu’il s’agisse de l’évolution des taux d’intérêt, de l’inflation, de la croissance économique ou des valorisations boursières. Pourtant, les marchés parviennent à surprendre même les investisseurs les mieux informés. Si un portefeuille construit à partir de prévisions exactes peut produire des résultats impressionnants, prévoir l’avenir avec constance est une tout autre affaire. Toutefois, l’accès à davantage de données, à une puissance de calcul accrue et aux progrès généraux de l’intelligence artificielle (IA) pourrait-il changer la donne?

Le piège des prévisions

La plupart des réunions de comités de placement finissent par aborder les mêmes questions : les taux d’intérêt, l’inflation, la croissance économique et l’orientation des marchés. Bien que ces questions soient importantes, elles peuvent créer un faux sentiment de certitude. Le danger ne réside pas dans le fait d’établir des prévisions, mais plutôt dans une dépendance excessive à leur égard. Lorsque les portefeuilles sont positionnés en fonction d’un scénario de référence, les investisseurs parient en quelque sorte sur le fait que l’avenir se déroulera comme prévu. Malheureusement, les marchés se conforment rarement à ces attentes.

Peu d’investisseurs avaient prévu la crise financière mondiale. Peu avaient anticipé l’ampleur des perturbations liées à la pandémie. Peu avaient envisagé la rapidité de la flambée inflationniste qui a suivi la pandémie et la réaction énergique des banques centrales en matière de taux d’intérêt.

Les prévisions constituent des tentatives de composer avec un avenir incertain. Elles sont particulièrement utiles lorsqu’elles remettent en question notre réflexion, mettent en lumière les risques potentiels et permettent de vérifier nos hypothèses. Les prévisions devraient alimenter la discussion, et non dicter la décision.

L’IA peut aider les investisseurs à établir de meilleures prévisions, mais sa plus grande valeur réside dans l’amélioration de la façon dont celles-ci sont élaborées, remises en question et utilisées. La possibilité la plus importante pourrait être de favoriser des décisions de meilleure qualité dans un contexte d’incertitude.

La qualité de la prise de décision

La qualité de la prise de décision repose sur la rigueur de la réflexion et du processus qui sous-tendent une décision, indépendamment du fait que le résultat final soit favorable ou défavorable. Cette distinction est particulièrement importante en matière de placement, puisque de bonnes décisions peuvent produire de mauvais résultats et de mauvaises décisions peuvent produire de bons résultats, surtout à court terme.

Prenons l’exemple de deux comités de placement. Le premier effectue un placement concentré en s’appuyant sur une forte conviction quant à l’évolution future des marchés. Les prévisions se révèlent exactes, la position affiche un rendement exceptionnel et la décision est saluée comme une réussite.

Le deuxième comité adopte une approche différente. Il évalue rigoureusement ses hypothèses, examine d’autres scénarios, analyse les risques potentiels et choisit une approche plus diversifiée. Les marchés évoluent de façon imprévue et les résultats à court terme sont décevants.

Si l’on considère uniquement le résultat, la première décision semble supérieure. Mais le comité a-t-il réellement pris la meilleure décision? Pas nécessairement. Le hasard, le moment choisi et les événements imprévisibles jouent souvent un rôle plus important que nous ne voulons l’admettre dans les résultats obtenus.

Du point de vue de la gouvernance, la distinction est plus nette. Le processus adopté par le deuxième comité, qui consistait à évaluer la capacité du portefeuille à résister à un large éventail de résultats possibles, témoignait d’une meilleure qualité de prise de décision.

De plus, les processus décisionnels rigoureux sont généralement plus faciles à reproduire que les prévisions exactes. C’est pourquoi bon nombre des plus grands investisseurs institutionnels au monde consacrent moins de temps à tenter d’avoir raison et davantage de temps à s’assurer de prendre des décisions éclairées et de grande qualité, peu importe ce que l’avenir leur réserve.

Comment l’IA peut-elle contribuer?

L’IA a le potentiel d’améliorer les prévisions et la qualité de la prise de décision de plusieurs façons importantes.

• Améliorer l’information sur laquelle repose la décision. L’avantage le plus évident réside dans l’énorme quantité d’information que l’IA peut traiter. Historiquement, les prévisions étaient limitées par la quantité de données qu’une équipe de placement pouvait raisonnablement lire, analyser et modéliser. L’IA peut élargir considérablement ce champ d’analyse en intégrant des données de marché, des indicateurs économiques, des résultats d’entreprises, des transcriptions de conférences téléphoniques sur les résultats financiers, des nouvelles et d’autres sources d’information.
• Aller au-delà de la quantité d’information. L’accès à davantage d’information ne représente qu’une partie de l’avantage. L’IA peut également repérer des relations complexes, non structurées et non linéaires que les investisseurs pourraient négliger. Contrairement à un exercice traditionnel de prévision qui peut finir par privilégier un point de vue particulier, un processus soutenu par l’IA peut réévaluer continuellement les données à mesure que de nouvelles informations deviennent disponibles.
• Remettre en question la thèse de placement. L’un des rôles les plus puissants de l’IA consiste à agir systématiquement comme contradicteur. Les équipes de placement développent naturellement de fortes convictions à l’égard de leurs analyses. L’IA peut offrir un contrepoids rigoureux en recherchant activement des éléments qui remettent ces convictions en question, en faisant ressortir des informations qui auraient pu être sous-estimées et en examinant les raisons pour lesquelles une thèse pourrait se révéler erronée. À mesure que de nouvelles informations apparaissent, elle peut également mettre en évidence ce qui a changé depuis l’élaboration de la thèse initiale.
• Faire ressortir les biais comportementaux. L’IA peut contribuer à remettre en question de manière plus générale et rigoureuse le raisonnement qui sous-tend une recommandation de placement, en aidant à déterminer comment les biais comportementaux peuvent influencer une décision. En présentant systématiquement d’autres interprétations, des contre-arguments et des éléments d’information négligés, l’IA peut encourager les investisseurs à distinguer leurs convictions des raisons qui les motivent. L’objectif n’est pas d’éliminer le jugement humain, mais de le rendre plus équilibré et plus facile à défendre.
• Intégrer la mémoire institutionnelle au processus. L’IA peut aider les équipes à consulter des dossiers de placement antérieurs, des travaux de recherche et des comptes rendus de décisions afin de déterminer si une décision semblable a déjà été prise, quelles étaient les hypothèses retenues à l’époque et quels en ont été les résultats. Elle permet ainsi de rendre les connaissances organisationnelles plus accessibles et plus utiles au moment de prendre une nouvelle décision.

L’IA comporte également des limites. Une grande partie de ce qu’elle apprend repose sur les relations présentes dans les données existantes, alors que les marchés peuvent évoluer précisément parce qu’un événement survient sans précédent comparable.

La plus grande possibilité offerte par l’IA réside dans le renforcement de la rigueur des prévisions : exploiter un éventail plus large d’informations, remettre les hypothèses en question de façon plus approfondie, actualiser les perspectives plus rapidement et reconnaître plus tôt que le contexte a changé.

Renforcer la rigueur du processus décisionnel

Même avec de meilleurs outils et davantage d’information, il est impossible d’éliminer l’incertitude inhérente aux placements.

La valeur ajoutée de l’IA ne se limite pas à de meilleures prévisions. Elle réside également dans l’amélioration de la qualité des décisions grâce au renforcement du processus humain qui les entoure : remettre les objectifs en question, examiner les éléments probants, élargir les possibilités envisagées, soumettre les hypothèses à des simulations de crise, mettre en évidence les biais potentiels et vérifier si le raisonnement qui sous-tend une décision est réellement défendable.

Les six questions suivantes constituent un moyen pratique de remettre en question votre réflexion, d’évaluer vos hypothèses et de renforcer la rigueur des décisions importantes.

1. Objectif : L’objectif est-il clairement défini? Les décisions de grande qualité reposent d’abord sur la clarté des objectifs. Si nous ne savons pas précisément quel résultat nous cherchons à atteindre, il devient difficile d’évaluer les différentes possibilités, de comprendre les compromis ou de déterminer si la décision a été fructueuse.
2. Information : Utilisez-vous l’information la plus pertinente disponible? Les décisions de grande qualité reposent sur la pertinence de l’information, et non simplement sur sa quantité. L’objectif consiste à déterminer ce qui importe réellement pour la décision, à distinguer les éléments probants utiles du bruit informationnel et à reconnaître les lacunes importantes qui subsistent.
3. Solutions de rechange : D’autres possibilités d’action ont-elles été envisagées? Prendre une décision ne consiste généralement pas simplement à accepter ou à rejeter la première idée proposée. Une bonne prise de décision exige d’examiner délibérément différentes façons d’atteindre l’objectif avant de choisir l’approche offrant le meilleur équilibre entre les occasions, les risques et les compromis.
4. Incertitude : Avez-vous envisagé différents résultats possibles plutôt que de vous fier à un scénario de référence? L’avenir se déroule rarement exactement comme prévu. Plutôt que de fonder une décision sur un seul scénario de référence, il convient d’évaluer un éventail de résultats plausibles afin de déterminer si la décision demeure pertinente lorsque l’avenir évolue différemment des attentes initiales.
5. Biais comportementaux : Avez-vous reconnu les risques liés aux biais comportementaux potentiels? Même lorsque nos objectifs sont clairs et que nous disposons d’informations pertinentes, notre jugement peut être influencé par la façon dont nous interprétons ces informations. Nos expériences passées, nos convictions et nos préférences influencent naturellement nos décisions.
6. Processus : Existe-t-il un raisonnement clair permettant de défendre la décision si les résultats sont décevants? Puisque les résultats sont influencés par l’incertitude, même une décision bien réfléchie peut produire un résultat décevant. Un processus rigoureux permet de documenter clairement les raisons ayant motivé la décision, les convictions sur lesquelles elle reposait, les solutions de rechange envisagées et les risques acceptés en connaissance de cause.

Ensemble, ces questions ne garantissent pas un résultat favorable, mais elles peuvent améliorer considérablement la qualité de la décision et contribuer à s’assurer qu’elle a été prise de manière réfléchie, rigoureuse et pour les bonnes raisons.

L’IA peut jouer des rôles distincts pour chacune de ces questions. Dans certains cas, elle peut contribuer activement à élaborer une réponse en analysant l’information, en explorant différentes possibilités ou en évaluant les résultats potentiels. Dans d’autres, sa valeur peut résider dans sa capacité à nous rappeler systématiquement de remettre notre réflexion en question et de vérifier qu’aucun élément important n’a été négligé.

Tirer parti de l’IA pour prendre de meilleures décisions

L’objectif n’est pas que l’IA remplace le jugement humain dans la prise de décision, mais plutôt qu’elle contribue à l’améliorer.

Les marchés comportent trop d’incertitudes pour que les investisseurs puissent évaluer les compétences uniquement en fonction de l’exactitude d’une décision.

Une meilleure approche consiste à mettre en place un processus rigoureux favorisant des décisions de qualité en remettant les hypothèses en question, en faisant ressortir les éléments contradictoires, en repérant les biais, en envisageant d’autres scénarios et en explicitant davantage le raisonnement qui sous-tend chaque décision.

La véritable promesse de l’IA ne réside peut-être pas nécessairement dans sa capacité à améliorer considérablement les prévisions des investisseurs, mais plutôt dans celle de leur permettre de prendre des décisions de meilleure qualité, peu importe ce que l’avenir leur réserve.

The post Le véritable avantage de l’intelligence artificielle réside-t-il dans de meilleures prévisions ou de meilleures décisions? appeared first on Groupe financier Connor, Clark & Lunn ltée.

Investors spend enormous amounts of time and energy trying to forecast the future, whether it is the direction of interest rates, inflation, economic growth or market valuations. Yet markets have a way of surprising even the most informed investors. While a portfolio built on a correct forecast can deliver impressive results, consistently predicting the future is another matter entirely. However, could the benefit of more data, more computing power and general advances in artificial intelligence (AI) be a game changer?

The forecasting trap

Most investment committee meetings eventually arrive at the same debate: rates, inflation, economic growth and the direction of markets. While these questions matter, they can create a false sense of certainty. The danger is not in making forecasts, but in becoming too dependent on them. When portfolios are positioned around a base case expected outcome, investors are effectively making a bet that the future will cooperate. Unfortunately, markets rarely feel obligated to do so.

Few predicted the Global Financial Crisis. Few anticipated the scale of pandemic-related disruptions. Few foresaw the speed of the inflation surge that followed the pandemic and the aggressive interest rate response from central banks. Forecasts are attempts to navigate an uncertain future. They are most valuable when they challenge our thinking, highlight potential risks and test assumptions. Forecasts should shape the discussion, not dictate the decision. AI may help investors make better forecasts, but its greater value lies in improving how forecasts are developed, challenged and used. The most significant opportunity may be to facilitate better quality decisions in the face of uncertainty.

Decision-making quality

Decision-making quality is the thoroughness of the thinking and process behind a decision, independent of whether the eventual outcome turns out well or badly. This distinction is particularly important in investing because good decisions can produce bad outcomes, and bad decisions can produce good outcomes, especially over short periods.

Consider two investment committees. The first makes a concentrated investment based on a strong conviction about how the future will unfold. The forecast proves correct, the position performs exceptionally well, and the decision is celebrated as a success. The second committee takes a different approach. It rigorously evaluates assumptions, considers alternative scenarios, evaluates potential risks, and chooses a more diversified path. Markets move in unforeseen ways and short-term results disappoint.

Looking at only the outcome, the first decision appears superior. But did the committee actually make the better decision? Not necessarily. Chance, timing and unpredictable events often play a larger role than we care to admit when it comes to outcomes.

From a governance perspective, it is more clear-cut. The process adopted by the second committee, assessing whether the portfolio could withstand a wide range of outcomes, demonstrated higher decision-making quality. Moreover, sound decision-making processes tend to be more repeatable than accurate predictions. That is why many of the world’s leading institutional investors spend less time trying to be right and more time ensuring they make informed, high-quality decisions, regardless of what the future brings.

How AI can help

AI has the potential to improve forecasting and decision-making quality in several important ways.

• Improve the information going into the decision. The most obvious is the sheer amount of information it can process. Historically, forecasts were constrained by what an investment team could reasonably read, analyze and model. AI can expand that field dramatically, incorporating market data, economic indicators, company results, earnings-call transcripts, news and other forms of information.
• More information is only part of the story. AI can also identify complex, unstructured and non-linear relationships that investors might overlook. And unlike a traditional forecasting exercise that can become focused on a particular point of view, an AI-supported process can continually reassess the evidence as latest information becomes available.
• Challenge the investment thesis. A powerful role of AI is its ability to function as a systematic devil’s advocate. Investment teams naturally build convictions around their views. AI can provide a disciplined counterweight by actively searching for evidence that challenges those views, surfacing information that may have been discounted, and questioning how the thesis could turn out to be wrong. As the latest information emerges, it can also highlight what has changed since the original view was formed.
• Surface behavioural biases. AI can function as a broader disciplined challenge to the reasoning behind an investment recommendation, helping identify how behavioural biases may influence the decision. By systematically surfacing alternative interpretations, counterarguments and overlooked evidence, AI can encourage investors to separate what they believe from why they believe it. The goal is not to eliminate human judgment, but to make that judgment more balanced and defensible.
• Bring institutional memory into the process. AI can help teams search for previous investment cases, research and decision records to see if there was a similar decision before, what the assumptions were then and how it played out. This turns organizational knowledge into something more usable at the point of a new decision being made.

AI has limitations too. Much of what it learns comes from relationships contained in existing information, while markets can change precisely because something happens that does not resemble the past. The greater opportunity for AI lies in strengthening forecasting discipline: drawing on a broader range of information, challenging assumptions more rigorously, updating views more quickly, and recognizing sooner when the world has moved on.

Improving decision-making discipline

Even with better tools and more information, uncertainty cannot be eliminated from investing. The payoff from AI is not simply better forecasts, but better-quality decisions by strengthening the human process that surrounds it: challenging the objective, interrogating the evidence, widening the alternatives, stress-testing uncertainty, exposing potential biases and questioning whether the rationale is truly defensible. These following six questions provide a practical way to challenge your thinking, evaluate your assumptions and bring greater discipline to the decisions that matter.

1. Objective: Are you clear about the objective? High-quality decisions start with clarity of purpose. If we are not clear about the outcome we are trying to achieve, it becomes difficult to judge the alternatives, understand the trade-offs or determine whether the decision was successful.
2. Information: Are you using the most relevant information available? High-quality decisions depend on having relevant information, not simply more information. The goal is to identify what genuinely matters to the decision, separate useful evidence from noise, and recognize where important gaps remain.
3. Alternatives: Have other courses of action been considered? Decisions rarely come from choosing whether to accept the first idea on the table. Good decision-making means deliberately considering diverse ways of achieving the objective before deciding which path offers the best balance of opportunity, risk and trade-offs.
4. Uncertainty: Have you considered what could happen rather than relying on a base case forecast? The future rarely unfolds exactly as expected. Rather than building a decision around a base case forecast, a range of plausible outcomes should be assessed to challenge whether the decision still makes sense if the future looks different from the base case.
5. Behavioural biases: Have you recognized the risk of potential behavioural biases? Even with clear objectives and valuable information, our judgment can still be influenced by how we interpret that information. We naturally bring prior experiences, existing beliefs and preferences to a decision.
6. Process: Is there a clear rationale for defending the decision if the outcome disappoints? Because outcomes are influenced by uncertainty, even a well-reasoned decision can produce a disappointing result. A strong process creates a clear record of why we made the decision, what was believed, what alternatives were considered and what risks were knowingly accepted.

Together, these questions will not guarantee a good outcome, but they can significantly improve the quality of the decision behind it and help ensure that it was thoughtful, disciplined and made for the right reasons. AI can play distinct roles across these questions. For some, it can actively help develop the answer by analyzing information, exploring alternatives or testing outcomes. For others, its value may be as a disciplined reminder to challenge our thinking and ensure an important consideration has not been overlooked.

Leveraging AI for better quality decisions

The objective is not AI replacing human judgment when making decisions. It is better human judgment, supported by AI. Markets contain too much uncertainty for investors to judge skill simply by whether a decision was right. A better approach tries to build a disciplined process for making quality decisions by challenging assumptions, surfacing contrary evidence, identifying biases, considering alternative scenarios and making the reasoning behind a decision more explicit. The real promise of AI may not necessarily be making investors materially better at predicting the future, but to allow them to arrive at better quality decisions irrespective of what the future holds.

The post Is AI’s real advantage better predictions or better decisions? appeared first on Groupe financier Connor, Clark & Lunn ltée.

Chart 1

Chart 2

The annual rate of change of broad money – as measured by non-financial M4 – bottomed in October 2023. Based on the median lead, a previous post suggested that annual core inflation would trough by March 2026.

The low, instead, was reached in April at 2.5%, with the core rate moving sideways over the summer, rising to 2.8% in September.

The level at the low was significantly higher than had been expected here. Disinflationary pressure from extreme monetary weakness in 2023 was offset by cost-push shocks from government policies and now Gulf War III.

How long will the current upswing last?

The recovery in money growth from the October 2023 low was minor and short-lived. Annual expansion peaked at 4.8% in January 2025. Allowing for the median lead of 27 at peaks, this suggests a core inflation top around April 2027.

Annual broad money growth subsequently fell to a low of 3.0% in January 2026, remaining weak through August (3.4%). Monetary effects, therefore, should be pushing down on inflation during H2 2027 and into 2028.

Additional policy tightening now would reinforce this trend, risking unnecessary damage to the economy and an eventual inflation undershoot.

The post Why the UK MPC should stand pat appeared first on Groupe financier Connor, Clark & Lunn ltée.

Chart 1

Chart 2

The annual rate of change of broad money – as measured by non-financial M4 – bottomed in October 2023. Based on the median lead, a previous post suggested that annual core inflation would trough by March 2026.

The low, instead, was reached in April at 2.5%, with the core rate moving sideways over the summer, rising to 2.8% in September.

The level at the low was significantly higher than had been expected here. Disinflationary pressure from extreme monetary weakness in 2023 was offset by cost-push shocks from government policies and now Gulf War III.

How long will the current upswing last?

The recovery in money growth from the October 2023 low was minor and short-lived. Annual expansion peaked at 4.8% in January 2025. Allowing for the median lead of 27 at peaks, this suggests a core inflation top around April 2027.

Annual broad money growth subsequently fell to a low of 3.0% in January 2026, remaining weak through August (3.4%). Monetary effects, therefore, should be pushing down on inflation during H2 2027 and into 2028.

Additional policy tightening now would reinforce this trend, risking unnecessary damage to the economy and an eventual inflation undershoot.

The post Why the UK MPC should stand pat appeared first on Groupe financier Connor, Clark & Lunn ltée.

The trade relationship between Canada and the United States has recently been making news and is among the largest in the world, with more than USD1 trillion in annual trade in goods and services. Agricultural and farm goods are always at the heart of discussions as the divide is philosophical. The US philosophy favours regulation in a free-market structure, while Canada sacrifices free market for income stability as found in the case of dairy farm quotas.

Regulatory differences affect competitivity. In the example of food additives, Canada generally requires pre-market approval by Health Canada before an additive may be used in food. The United States also regulates additives through the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), but permits the “Generally Recognized as Safe” (GRAS) framework, which allows ingredients to enter the market without the same formal review process. This has led to perceptions that Canada applies a more precautionary approach to food regulation. Small changes in regulations can affect farmer and grower profitability significantly.

The good news

North America is changing; dietary guidance in both Canada and the United States has shifted toward promoting whole foods and limiting highly processed foods. The next twenty years of food regulation may look much more like health-care regulation. Future regulators are increasingly likely to focus on metabolic health, chronic disease, nutritional quality and ingredient transparency. The food industry could experience a transformation similar to what happened with tobacco decades ago: not outright prohibition, but progressively tighter restrictions on ingredients perceived to contribute to long-term health costs. The resulting shift toward “food as medicine” may become one of the most important secular themes in agriculture, nutrition and health care.

Over the next decade, food safety regulators across the globe will increasingly focus on ultra-processed foods, food additives and dyes, sugar content, antibiotic use in livestock and nutritional labeling.

Raising the standards on raising proteins

These regulatory trends also apply to proteins, which are often affected by antibiotics and pesticide usage where regulations differ greatly by region.

As an example, Norway is generally considered the world’s most advanced and stringent salmon regulator. Amongst other measures, the country:

• Enforces strict sea-lice thresholds,
• Uses a “traffic-light” system that can limit industry growth if environmental impacts become excessive, and
• Explicitly incorporates wild salmon health into licensing decisions.

Norway has effectively said growth is permitted only if environmental performance improves.

These standards benefit companies that participate in the salmon industry via closed containment systems, sea-lice technologies, vaccines or aquaculture automation. This has allowed Norway to become the leading producer of high-quality salmon globally.

SalMar ASA (SALM NO) is the world’s second-largest Atlantic salmon producer. Headquartered in Frøya, Norway, the company operates a highly cost-efficient, vertically integrated aquaculture model spanning broodstock, smolt, ocean farming and processing. It sells to over 50 countries worldwide.

SalMar’s production footprint covers:

• Norway (Central & Northern): The foundational engine representing the vast majority of its volume.
• Iceland: Operates through its majority-owned subsidiary, Icelandic Salmon.
• Scotland: Runs a 50/50 joint venture via Scottish Sea Farms.
• SalMar Ocean: Its pioneering offshore and open-sea aquaculture division.

SalMar holds extensive unutilized capacity within its current operational licenses. Driven by exceptional biological performance (such as superior fish survival and growth rates), SalMar raised its full-year 2026 harvest guidance to 350,000 tonnes, marking a sharp 16% year-over-year volume increase from 2025. The company anticipates scaling this existing organic footprint further to reach 378,000 tonnes by 2028.

Agricultural pesticides

In agriculture, pesticide regulation can drastically affect the competitive landscape. This is evident when border regions grow similar produce such as California and Mexico.

Mexico has taken a strict stance against highly hazardous pesticides (HHPs). The country has banned over 180 pesticides that remain legally authorized in the United States, including systemic adjustments to phase out glyphosate. On the other side of the border, while California permits the use of certain chemicals banned in Mexico, it severely restricts how and when they can be applied (e.g., rigid tracking of drift, groundwater protection zones and strict worker re-entry intervals).

The California Department of Pesticide Regulation annual marketplace surveillance reports consistently shows that 97% to 98% of California-grown produce is completely compliant or features non-detectable residues. It is imported produce that dynamically accounts for a disproportionate volume of illegal pesticide residue violations.

For Mexican avocados and lemons to enter the US market legally, they must comply with US EPA pesticide residue tolerances. While Mexican avocados generally test clean because their thick, unconsumed skins shield the fruit, other Mexican citrus crops (like limes and lemons) occasionally trigger border enforcement actions due to traces of unapproved or excessive pesticides.

Global Alpha is invested in Limoneira Company (LMNR US), a diversified global agribusiness and land management corporation headquartered in Santa Paula, California.

Founded in 1893, they manage roughly 14,500 acres of agricultural land. Limoneira controls extensive global supply chains by sourcing citrus across the United States, Chile, South Africa and Mexico to ensure year-round supply for retail and foodservice buyers. Beyond pure farming, the company holds high-value, adjudicated water rights and operates a profitable real estate development arm.

Limoneira is undergoing a core business model transformation designed to unlock hidden asset value and shift capital into higher-margin segments.

Limoneira is aggressively shifting underutilized land into avocado production to capture robust, multiyear US demand growth. Avocado farming boasts superior unit economics over standard lemons. Driven by 400 acres planted in 2023 and 2024 finally reaching commercial maturation, management projected avocado production to exceed 10 million pounds in fiscal year 2027 – representing an ambitious 30% volume expansion. The company aims to add another 500 avocado acres by the end of 2027.

US trade case against Chinese choline

As food regulations increase, discrepancies between countries will multiply trade disputes and antidumping (AD) cases. In June 2026, a petition was filed alleging that Chinese producers were benefiting from Chinese government subsidies and dumping choline salts into the US market at unfairly low prices.

The U.S. Department of Commerce initiated AD and countervailing duty (CVD) investigations in July 2026, and the United States International Trade Commission (USITC) subsequently found a reasonable indication of injury to the US industry, allowing the investigations to proceed. The alleged dumping margins are substantial, ranging from 73% to over 300%. AD and CVD investigations are intended to protect US industries and workers from unfairly priced or subsidized imports as evidenced by this case regarding choline from China.

Choline is an essential nutrient used in poultry feed, swine feed, aquaculture, infant formula, human dietary supplements, functional foods and nutraceuticals.

Global Alpha participates in choline manufacturing through Balchem Corporation (BCPC US), a specialty ingredients company that operates at the intersection of nutritional science, microencapsulation technology and precise formulation.

Balchem focuses on niche markets where science-backed efficacy and stringent regulatory compliance allow for premium pricing, instead of competing as a bulk commodity supplier. The company is the global leader in choline production, dominating the market across both human and animal nutrition segments.

Rather than treating choline as a cheap bulk commodity, Balchem has spent over 50 years leveraging its proprietary manufacturing, purity testing and delivery technologies to command the leading global market share. The company’s revenue is diversified across three core business segments:

• Human nutrition & health (63% of revenue): High-margin specialty ingredients like branded choline, mineral amino acid chelates, vitamin K2 and texturizing systems used in dietary supplements, infant formula and functional foods.
• Animal nutrition & health (23% of revenue): Rumen-protected microencapsulated nutrients and choline delivery mechanisms that optimize health and milk production in dairy cattle and livestock.
• Specialty products (14% of revenue): High-purity gases and packaged chemicals used primarily in medical device sterilization, agricultural fumigation and plant micronutrient delivery.

As regulation continues to reshape agricultural costs and competitiveness, locally focused producers with resilient supply chains may be best positioned to manage inflationary pressures – a thematic we continue to follow closely at Global Alpha.

The post Regulation on the menu: Finding opportunity in a changing food system appeared first on Groupe financier Connor, Clark & Lunn ltée.

The trade relationship between Canada and the United States has recently been making news and is among the largest in the world, with more than USD1 trillion in annual trade in goods and services. Agricultural and farm goods are always at the heart of discussions as the divide is philosophical. The US philosophy favours regulation in a free-market structure, while Canada sacrifices free market for income stability as found in the case of dairy farm quotas.

Regulatory differences affect competitivity. In the example of food additives, Canada generally requires pre-market approval by Health Canada before an additive may be used in food. The United States also regulates additives through the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), but permits the “Generally Recognized as Safe” (GRAS) framework, which allows ingredients to enter the market without the same formal review process. This has led to perceptions that Canada applies a more precautionary approach to food regulation. Small changes in regulations can affect farmer and grower profitability significantly.

The good news

North America is changing; dietary guidance in both Canada and the United States has shifted toward promoting whole foods and limiting highly processed foods. The next twenty years of food regulation may look much more like health-care regulation. Future regulators are increasingly likely to focus on metabolic health, chronic disease, nutritional quality and ingredient transparency. The food industry could experience a transformation similar to what happened with tobacco decades ago: not outright prohibition, but progressively tighter restrictions on ingredients perceived to contribute to long-term health costs. The resulting shift toward “food as medicine” may become one of the most important secular themes in agriculture, nutrition and health care.

Over the next decade, food safety regulators across the globe will increasingly focus on ultra-processed foods, food additives and dyes, sugar content, antibiotic use in livestock and nutritional labeling.

Raising the standards on raising proteins

These regulatory trends also apply to proteins, which are often affected by antibiotics and pesticide usage where regulations differ greatly by region.

As an example, Norway is generally considered the world’s most advanced and stringent salmon regulator. Amongst other measures, the country:

• Enforces strict sea-lice thresholds,
• Uses a “traffic-light” system that can limit industry growth if environmental impacts become excessive, and
• Explicitly incorporates wild salmon health into licensing decisions.

Norway has effectively said growth is permitted only if environmental performance improves.

These standards benefit companies that participate in the salmon industry via closed containment systems, sea-lice technologies, vaccines or aquaculture automation. This has allowed Norway to become the leading producer of high-quality salmon globally.

SalMar ASA (SALM NO) is the world’s second-largest Atlantic salmon producer. Headquartered in Frøya, Norway, the company operates a highly cost-efficient, vertically integrated aquaculture model spanning broodstock, smolt, ocean farming and processing. It sells to over 50 countries worldwide.

SalMar’s production footprint covers:

• Norway (Central & Northern): The foundational engine representing the vast majority of its volume.
• Iceland: Operates through its majority-owned subsidiary, Icelandic Salmon.
• Scotland: Runs a 50/50 joint venture via Scottish Sea Farms.
• SalMar Ocean: Its pioneering offshore and open-sea aquaculture division.

SalMar holds extensive unutilized capacity within its current operational licenses. Driven by exceptional biological performance (such as superior fish survival and growth rates), SalMar raised its full-year 2026 harvest guidance to 350,000 tonnes, marking a sharp 16% year-over-year volume increase from 2025. The company anticipates scaling this existing organic footprint further to reach 378,000 tonnes by 2028.

Agricultural pesticides

In agriculture, pesticide regulation can drastically affect the competitive landscape. This is evident when border regions grow similar produce such as California and Mexico.

Mexico has taken a strict stance against highly hazardous pesticides (HHPs). The country has banned over 180 pesticides that remain legally authorized in the United States, including systemic adjustments to phase out glyphosate. On the other side of the border, while California permits the use of certain chemicals banned in Mexico, it severely restricts how and when they can be applied (e.g., rigid tracking of drift, groundwater protection zones and strict worker re-entry intervals).

The California Department of Pesticide Regulation annual marketplace surveillance reports consistently shows that 97% to 98% of California-grown produce is completely compliant or features non-detectable residues. It is imported produce that dynamically accounts for a disproportionate volume of illegal pesticide residue violations.

For Mexican avocados and lemons to enter the US market legally, they must comply with US EPA pesticide residue tolerances. While Mexican avocados generally test clean because their thick, unconsumed skins shield the fruit, other Mexican citrus crops (like limes and lemons) occasionally trigger border enforcement actions due to traces of unapproved or excessive pesticides.

Global Alpha is invested in Limoneira Company (LMNR US), a diversified global agribusiness and land management corporation headquartered in Santa Paula, California.

Founded in 1893, they manage roughly 14,500 acres of agricultural land. Limoneira controls extensive global supply chains by sourcing citrus across the United States, Chile, South Africa and Mexico to ensure year-round supply for retail and foodservice buyers. Beyond pure farming, the company holds high-value, adjudicated water rights and operates a profitable real estate development arm.

Limoneira is undergoing a core business model transformation designed to unlock hidden asset value and shift capital into higher-margin segments.

Limoneira is aggressively shifting underutilized land into avocado production to capture robust, multiyear US demand growth. Avocado farming boasts superior unit economics over standard lemons. Driven by 400 acres planted in 2023 and 2024 finally reaching commercial maturation, management projected avocado production to exceed 10 million pounds in fiscal year 2027 – representing an ambitious 30% volume expansion. The company aims to add another 500 avocado acres by the end of 2027.

US trade case against Chinese choline

As food regulations increase, discrepancies between countries will multiply trade disputes and antidumping (AD) cases. In June 2026, a petition was filed alleging that Chinese producers were benefiting from Chinese government subsidies and dumping choline salts into the US market at unfairly low prices.

The U.S. Department of Commerce initiated AD and countervailing duty (CVD) investigations in July 2026, and the United States International Trade Commission (USITC) subsequently found a reasonable indication of injury to the US industry, allowing the investigations to proceed. The alleged dumping margins are substantial, ranging from 73% to over 300%. AD and CVD investigations are intended to protect US industries and workers from unfairly priced or subsidized imports as evidenced by this case regarding choline from China.

Choline is an essential nutrient used in poultry feed, swine feed, aquaculture, infant formula, human dietary supplements, functional foods and nutraceuticals.

Global Alpha participates in choline manufacturing through Balchem Corporation (BCPC US), a specialty ingredients company that operates at the intersection of nutritional science, microencapsulation technology and precise formulation.

Balchem focuses on niche markets where science-backed efficacy and stringent regulatory compliance allow for premium pricing, instead of competing as a bulk commodity supplier. The company is the global leader in choline production, dominating the market across both human and animal nutrition segments.

Rather than treating choline as a cheap bulk commodity, Balchem has spent over 50 years leveraging its proprietary manufacturing, purity testing and delivery technologies to command the leading global market share. The company’s revenue is diversified across three core business segments:

• Human nutrition & health (63% of revenue): High-margin specialty ingredients like branded choline, mineral amino acid chelates, vitamin K2 and texturizing systems used in dietary supplements, infant formula and functional foods.
• Animal nutrition & health (23% of revenue): Rumen-protected microencapsulated nutrients and choline delivery mechanisms that optimize health and milk production in dairy cattle and livestock.
• Specialty products (14% of revenue): High-purity gases and packaged chemicals used primarily in medical device sterilization, agricultural fumigation and plant micronutrient delivery.

As regulation continues to reshape agricultural costs and competitiveness, locally focused producers with resilient supply chains may be best positioned to manage inflationary pressures – a thematic we continue to follow closely at Global Alpha.

The post Regulation on the menu: Finding opportunity in a changing food system appeared first on Groupe financier Connor, Clark & Lunn ltée.

Flávio Bolsonaro’s strong showing in the first round of Brazilian presidential elections on the 4^th of October was the catalyst for a sharp rally in the Ibovespa Index this month. In previous commentaries, we argued that the market trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of around 8x reflected political uncertainty. Further, we suggested the emergence of a credible conservative candidate to contest the elections would be fuel for outperformance relative to broader EM equities.

 
In our view, São Paolo governor Tarcísio de Freitas and Mission Party leader Renan Santos would have been the most credible right-wing contenders. We were wrong to discount the chances of a Flávio Bolsonaro candidacy, largely based on his connection to Daniel Vorcaro, who has been engulfed in a vast financial and political fraud case.

Senate swings to the right

Despite Flávio’s many glaring flaws as a candidate, he posted a stronger-than-expected showing in the first round of presidential elections taking 47.0% in the runoff against Lula’s 45.1%. Polls had understated Flávio’s performance by about 5pts.

In the second-round runoff with Lula, Flávio is the clear favourite. He needs only about half of the roughly 7.7% first round vote share that went to other, mostly right-leaning candidates. The first-round leader has won every runoff since 2002.

Arguably, the most important shift was in the 81-seat Senate where the number of seats held by the left-wing Social Democratic Party (PSD) collapsed from 14 to five, the right-wing Liberal Partyrose to 28 seats from 15, while a right-of-centre bloc controls 48 seats. So even if Lula were to win the presidency, he would face fierce opposition in the Senate.

Yields plummet and rate-sensitive stocks outperform

The Ibovespa soared by over 12% in USD terms the day after the election results were announced, with investors anticipating a more market-friendly administration. We currently hold a modest overweight to Brazilian equities and, over a period of months, have been tilting the risk budget within the allocation to more rate-sensitive names that would benefit from falling yields on the prospect of a return to a more conservative fiscal policy.

These stocks outperformed through the post-first-round period, bolstered by policy announcements from the Bolsonaro team which suggest they plan to hit the ground running should they take out the second round.

Economic advisor to Flávio Bolsonaro, Luiz Felipe Trevisan, posted a series of policy commitments with some set for immediate rollout (before inauguration via Congress):

• “Super PEC” fiscal package: Plan to leverage political momentum immediately post-election to pass a R$190–200B (~1.5% of GDP) spending cut before inauguration. Focuses on internal state efficiency (administration reform, cutting 10 ministries, fraud reduction, asset sales) without touching social benefits, pensions or immediate LCI/LCA tax incentives.
• Ending re-election as bargaining chip: Proposes abolishing presidential re-election to gain Congressional support for tough fiscal reforms, positioning this as a single-term legacy play to build a bridge for Tarcísio in 2030.
• Budget and institutional governance: Aims to reform expenditure rules so Congress and the Judiciary share accountability for the spending they create. Includes setting 15-year term limits and minimum qualifications for Supreme Court (STF) nominees.
• Pro-growth and capital markets: Targets boosting infrastructure investment to R$500B/year, maintaining full Central Bank independence, revoking ~1,000 regulations (“Economic Freedom 2.0”), and levelling tax treatment on corporate debt to attract foreign credit.

Since the 2000s mining boom the share of Brazilian equities has collapsed.

 
While EM valuations look attractive overall, Brazilian equities look especially cheap and poised to outperform on a better macro backdrop.

 
There is no shortage over high-quality companies in this deep market, and we have been building a long list of candidates which fit our stock selection process to take advantage of further positive developments.

The post Strong showing from Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil’s first round of presidential elections sends stocks flying appeared first on Groupe financier Connor, Clark & Lunn ltée.

Flávio Bolsonaro’s strong showing in the first round of Brazilian presidential elections on the 4^th of October was the catalyst for a sharp rally in the Ibovespa Index this month. In previous commentaries, we argued that the market trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of around 8x reflected political uncertainty. Further, we suggested the emergence of a credible conservative candidate to contest the elections would be fuel for outperformance relative to broader EM equities.

 
In our view, São Paolo governor Tarcísio de Freitas and Mission Party leader Renan Santos would have been the most credible right-wing contenders. We were wrong to discount the chances of a Flávio Bolsonaro candidacy, largely based on his connection to Daniel Vorcaro, who has been engulfed in a vast financial and political fraud case.

Senate swings to the right

Despite Flávio’s many glaring flaws as a candidate, he posted a stronger-than-expected showing in the first round of presidential elections taking 47.0% in the runoff against Lula’s 45.1%. Polls had understated Flávio’s performance by about 5pts.

In the second-round runoff with Lula, Flávio is the clear favourite. He needs only about half of the roughly 7.7% first round vote share that went to other, mostly right-leaning candidates. The first-round leader has won every runoff since 2002.

Arguably, the most important shift was in the 81-seat Senate where the number of seats held by the left-wing Social Democratic Party (PSD) collapsed from 14 to five, the right-wing Liberal Partyrose to 28 seats from 15, while a right-of-centre bloc controls 48 seats. So even if Lula were to win the presidency, he would face fierce opposition in the Senate.

Yields plummet and rate-sensitive stocks outperform

The Ibovespa soared by over 12% in USD terms the day after the election results were announced, with investors anticipating a more market-friendly administration. We currently hold a modest overweight to Brazilian equities and, over a period of months, have been tilting the risk budget within the allocation to more rate-sensitive names that would benefit from falling yields on the prospect of a return to a more conservative fiscal policy.

These stocks outperformed through the post-first-round period, bolstered by policy announcements from the Bolsonaro team which suggest they plan to hit the ground running should they take out the second round.

Economic advisor to Flávio Bolsonaro, Luiz Felipe Trevisan, posted a series of policy commitments with some set for immediate rollout (before inauguration via Congress):

• “Super PEC” fiscal package: Plan to leverage political momentum immediately post-election to pass a R$190–200B (~1.5% of GDP) spending cut before inauguration. Focuses on internal state efficiency (administration reform, cutting 10 ministries, fraud reduction, asset sales) without touching social benefits, pensions or immediate LCI/LCA tax incentives.
• Ending re-election as bargaining chip: Proposes abolishing presidential re-election to gain Congressional support for tough fiscal reforms, positioning this as a single-term legacy play to build a bridge for Tarcísio in 2030.
• Budget and institutional governance: Aims to reform expenditure rules so Congress and the Judiciary share accountability for the spending they create. Includes setting 15-year term limits and minimum qualifications for Supreme Court (STF) nominees.
• Pro-growth and capital markets: Targets boosting infrastructure investment to R$500B/year, maintaining full Central Bank independence, revoking ~1,000 regulations (“Economic Freedom 2.0”), and levelling tax treatment on corporate debt to attract foreign credit.

Since the 2000s mining boom the share of Brazilian equities has collapsed.

 
While EM valuations look attractive overall, Brazilian equities look especially cheap and poised to outperform on a better macro backdrop.

 
There is no shortage over high-quality companies in this deep market, and we have been building a long list of candidates which fit our stock selection process to take advantage of further positive developments.

The post Strong showing from Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil’s first round of presidential elections sends stocks flying appeared first on Groupe financier Connor, Clark & Lunn ltée.

Chart 1

The projected decline was driven by weaker nominal money expansion, with CPI momentum little changed (though likely to rise in Q4).

The further fall in real money momentum, if confirmed, supports the forecast of a decline in global manufacturing PMI new orders through end-Q1 2027 (at least) – chart 2.

Chart 2

The mooted fall in the global measure reflects declines in China, Japan and India, with Brazil remaining weak – chart 3. The final September number will depend on US / Eurozone data released next week.

Chart 3

Global six-month industrial output growth may have recovered last month, based on solid US / Chinese data – chart 4. The shortfall of real money expansion versus output growth, therefore, may have widened sharply, suggesting an increased monetary headwind for markets.

Chart 4

The post Monetary news still weakening appeared first on Groupe financier Connor, Clark & Lunn ltée.

Chart 1

The projected decline was driven by weaker nominal money expansion, with CPI momentum little changed (though likely to rise in Q4).

The further fall in real money momentum, if confirmed, supports the forecast of a decline in global manufacturing PMI new orders through end-Q1 2027 (at least) – chart 2.

Chart 2

The mooted fall in the global measure reflects declines in China, Japan and India, with Brazil remaining weak – chart 3. The final September number will depend on US / Eurozone data released next week.

Chart 3

Global six-month industrial output growth may have recovered last month, based on solid US / Chinese data – chart 4. The shortfall of real money expansion versus output growth, therefore, may have widened sharply, suggesting an increased monetary headwind for markets.

Chart 4

The post Monetary news still weakening appeared first on Groupe financier Connor, Clark & Lunn ltée.