Simon Ward - Money Moves Markets - Comments

Simon Ward comments on Cyprus: bank run containable but will any new deal stick?

Simon Ward — Mon, 25 Mar 2013 15:53:46 +0000

Thanks Tom. The deal obviously prevents the loss of €6 billion from the two affected banks. Deposit flight from branches of foreign banks can be offset by a loan from head office. I strongly doubt that the ECB will cut off liquidity support for the affected institutions, assuming compliance with the deal.

Tom Papworth comments on Cyprus: bank run containable but will any new deal stick?

Tom Papworth — Sun, 24 Mar 2013 12:19:24 +0000

Interesting article, Simon, but don't the time deposits just delay the inevitable? After the last week, surely a flight to cash is inevitable. Why would anybody leave money on deposit in a Cypriot bank for longer than they have to.

Once a bank levy is proposed, the genie is out of the bottle. I expect that massive capital flight is now inevitable.

Simon Ward comments on UK money pick-up continues despite QE suspension

Simon Ward — Tue, 05 Mar 2013 12:08:31 +0000

I think the economy is growing.

Marco comments on UK money pick-up continues despite QE suspension

Marco — Fri, 01 Mar 2013 12:56:12 +0000

From your comment Yesterday and Today's Manufacturing figures do you feel that there will still be no GDP contraction in Q1 ....can you please provide your direct yes or no opinion? Your UK optimism from Q4 2012 does not seem followed through on yet. Always a great and informative Blog. Thank you

Henderson Global Investors Admin comments on Eurozone money trends consistent with slow growth but French weakness intensifying

Henderson Global Investors Admin — Wed, 27 Feb 2013 17:03:00 +0000

Dear Simon

Concerning your last post titled "Eurozone money trends consistent with slow growth but French weakness intensifying", would it be possible to post the results of the peripherals on a country by country basis (e.g. Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy) ???

Many thanks in advance,

Vasco Rosa

Cost management comments on Euro weakness / cost containment boosting peripheral competitiveness

Cost management — Fri, 21 Sep 2012 09:33:07 +0000

Peripheral countries are trying to improve their economies with overvalued exchange rates. It is really amazing to see the progress of these countries.

Paul Carr comments on Construction shaping up as drag on UK Q1 GDP

Paul Carr — Sat, 25 Aug 2012 17:00:44 +0000

There is an abundance of commentary upon various reasons the sector is under performing. However when a nation is unwilling to act upon the professional advise little can be corrected. It is not the construction sector that is under performing it is the UK in every sector.
Failure to take responsibility!

Tony B comments on UK 2008-09 GDP decline revised down

Tony B — Thu, 28 Jun 2012 14:18:52 +0000

Simon - do you also now have the Q1 (Jan-Mar) whole economy rent figure, in order to update/confirm your housing valuation model?
Thanks and, again, I enjoy greatly your high-quality analysis!
Tony B.

Julian Brigden Macro Intelligence 2 Partners comments on Better ECB bank lending survey offsets negative PMI surprise

Julian Brigden Macro Intelligence 2 Partners — Thu, 03 May 2012 14:02:21 +0000

Hi Simon

Yes, thank goodness the banks have relaxed their lending standards somewhat and its true they are "expecting" loan demand to increase. Unfortunately, actually loan demand in the last three months has continued to fall (sorry I can't post the chart). Indeed, I believe we are actually seeing an "anomic" collapse in the Eurozone consumer. In this scenario, Europeans who had grown accustomed to a social economic model with its high taxes but commensurate job security, healthcare, pensions etc. reacted by cutting spending and boosting savings as government attempted to impose austerity together with rapid structural chance. Essentially, we are at risk of a paradox of thrift type economic slowdown.

Regards

Julian

Simon Ward comments on Glimmers of hope in latest Eurozone money numbers

Simon Ward — Wed, 02 May 2012 12:42:32 +0000

Walter, The recent increase in M1 is unlikely to be attributable to the factors you suggest IMO. M1 was certainly not useless as a forecaster last year - it signalled an oncoming recession even as the ECB and consensus remained optimistic, as described here at the time (e.g. http://www.moneymovesmarkets.com/journal/2011/5/16/eurozone-gdp-celebration-may-prove-short-lived.html).