China May money / credit data: insufficient improvement
Wednesday, June 12, 2019 at 11:10AM
Simon Ward

Six-month growth rates of narrow money (true M1) and broad credit (total social financing) rose in May but remain weak by historical standards – a further pick-up is needed to warrant shifting to a more optimistic view of economic prospects.

The rise in nominal money / credit growth in May was offset by an increase in six-month CPI inflation, due to surging food prices – real rates of expansion were little changed.

Suggested implications:

1. Economic data will remain weak through Q3 and, probably, Q4.
2. Further policy easing is required and likely.
3. Prospects for early 2020 are improving.

Article originally appeared on Money Moves Markets (
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