UK economy solid, money signal positive
Simon Ward
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UK slowdown talk is overblown. GDP rose by 0.4% in the first quarter, down from 0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2015, according to the Office for National Statistics preliminary estimate. Excluding oil and gas extraction, however, the increase was 0.44%. The average revision to the preliminary growth estimate since 2005, meanwhile, has been +0.07 percentage points. Adjusting for this bias suggests that the onshore economy grew by a respectable 0.5% last quarter.
The preference here is to monitor growth in economic statistics over two quarters / six months, on the view that this improves the signal to noise ratio relative to shorter-term comparisons. Two-quarter growth of gross value added excluding oil and gas rose from 0.8% in the third quarter of 2015 to 1.0% in the fourth quarter and 1.1% in the first quarter, according to current data. The onshore economy, in other words, has gained momentum. This pick-up is consistent with a rising trend in six-month real narrow money growth since late 2014 – see first chart. (March monetary statistics will be released on Friday.)
No demand breakdown of GDP is yet available for the first quarter so it is not possible to evaluate the Bremain camp claim that referendum-related uncertainty is depressing business investment. This claim, however, is contradicted by the April CBI quarterly industrial trends survey released earlier this week: an average of the net percentages of firms planning to increase spending on plant / machinery and buildings rose to its highest level since 1997 – second chart.
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