The February MPC minutes revealed that, in addition to the three members voting for an immediate interest rate rise, at least two others believed that the case for an increase had strengthened. The question for the waverers this month is “why wait?”

The Inflation Report clearly signals the need for a rise, with the mean forecast for inflation two years’ out based on unchanged policies the furthest above the target since 1998. The economy has rebounded in early 2011, wage settlements have firmed and broad money is growing faster. With Eurozone official rates – 50 basis points higher than in the UK – set to rise, continued procrastination risks renewed sterling weakness and further upward pressure on import prices.

The February services PMI, admittedly, was modestly disappointing but still signals expansion, with rising optimism. Manufacturing, meanwhile, is booming and construction has proved surprisingly resilient (confirmed by today's fourth-quarter orders number). Price pressures are elevated across sectors. The relative weakness of consumer services is consistent with the MPC’s desire to see the economy rebalance in favour of manufacturing and investment.

The MPC-ometer model is marginally in favour of a rise this month. The forecast average interest rate vote is +14 basis points, up from +8 bp in February. This is consistent with Andrew Sentance repeating his call for a 50 bp increase, four other members voting for 25 bp and Adam Posen maintaining his dissent in favour of a £50 billion expansion of asset purchases (assumed to be equivalent to a 25 bp cut). The forecast is borderline and the model sometimes moves one month early. The Governor's opposition to higher rates, however, looks increasingly futile.